What Analyst Consensus Looks Like When You Stop Looking At The Average
Two companies can have the same average estimate but completely different levels of agreement behind it
4 hours ago11 min read
Geopolitical Risk Is a Lazy Label. The Market Prices the Shock Underneath
A Python event study of spot repricing, options skew, and sentiment across three market shocks On April 3, 2025, the US announced sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports. SPY dropped 4.8% that day. The next day it dropped another 6%. Financial news ran the usual headline: markets rattled by geopolitical uncertainty. Three months earlier, on August 5, 2024, the yen carry trade unwound. SPY dropped 3% in a single session. VIXY hit 65. Same headline: geopolitical uncertainty roils m
Jun 917 min read
